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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Tuesday Poll Dancing

UPDATE #2   New Quinnipac/CBS poll finds that 1 in 5 in Ohio have already voted--and Obama leads among them 54%-39%.  But remember: Dems have been pushing harder there on that.

Obama takes lead in new Reuter-Ipsos by one point--and they give him whopping 322 electoral votes.  They also found that Obama easily won 3rd debate, 47%-31%.  Meanwhile, those in media and GOP bubble--Romney has momentum!   

UPDATE #1  Gallup's 1 p.m. daily tracker (based on 7-day average) finds Obama gaining another point, to trail by 5%,  no change in reg voters,  and 2% gain in approval.  Yesterday Obama had also gained a point to trail by 6%, a result deemed an "outlier" by most polling experts (see other results below).  Note:  His approval rating up to healthy 51%--and that's based on 3-day, not 7-day average.  So quite possible we will be seeing more gains in next few days, even before winning last night's debate fully kicks in.

For first time, Gallup missed 1 p.m. report for awhile.  I joked that there was either 1) power failure in their home city of Outlier or 2) they were busy polling likely mini-iPad buyers in seven swing districts.

Earlier:  A PPP poll for SEIU finds race tied, a gain of 4% by Obama since last week.  Oddly, it finds the gender gap at only 9%.  It also shows Obama with surprisingly modest lead among those who claim they've already voted, 53%-45.%.

Our daily updates.    First up, new PPP poll gives Romney 2% lead nationally.  Last night new CBS had Obama 2% ahead and new ABC/WashPost gave him a 1% lead. Note: Today's Gallup tracker will not reflect last night's debate at all, as it averages previous seven days.

This morning's Rasmussen tracker (for what it's worth), which averages past 3 days,  puts Romney up 4%, a gain of 2% and first time it has had either candidate with that wide a margin in months.  New Granite poll in N.H. gives Obama 8% lead there.

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