Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Final Polls, As You GO To the Polls!
Worried about Sherrod Brown? Numerous polls still show him winning, perhaps without too much sweat. Polls splits on Elizabeth Warren's chances but some have her with nice bulge. But Jeff Flake ahead in Arizona and Jon Tester tied at best in Montana.
No new column from Nate Silver yet--maybe busy doing Colbert last night--but he has raised odds on Obama win to 91% and adds two important tweets: "There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote." And: "Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal." But also adds: While odds on Obama are high that does NOT mean it will be a landslide.
More: Nate has now put Florida in Obama column, a surprise, and given North Carolina to Romney, not a surprise. He pegs Obama electoral vote at about 315 for sure. Silver also has Obama winning the popular vote, with 50.9 percent to Romney’s 48.2.
Note: The first e-book on Obama-Romney race has been published--and it's mine! "Tricks, Lies and Videotape" covers contest right up to yesterday. Or wait for update on Wednesday.