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Sunday, November 4, 2012

Final Weekend Race-to-the-Finish Poll Dancing!

SUNDAY   Just up at 9:30 pm from Nate Silver:  odds on Obama winning up to  86.3%--highest mark since just before the first debate. Bunch of national polls all show Obama winning or at worst tied.  And swing states remain in good shape for him, mainly.

Final USA Today poll, via Gallup, of battleground states finds a dead heat there, which is actually a 4% "surge" for Obama, they note.

Reuters-Ipsos has Obama up 4% in Ohio and 1% in Virginia.  PPP has him up 2% in Iowa.  Go here for full listing of swing state polls, though some from sketchy pollsters.

Big one, final Pew poll just out, gives Obama 3% edge with likely voters--7% among reg voters.  When they add in leaners it's still 3% at 50%-47%.  You might recall they had Romney up by 4% a good margin last month at one point.  Women now favor him by 13%--and remember it was Pew which raised eyebrows last month when it found NO gender gap.

Another reason for gain?   Almost 7 in 10 approve his handling of Sandy and almost half of Romney backers.  Beyond the new Chris Christie bromance I'm not sure what they are hailing but, then again, I was without power for days.

Talking Points Memo today says only Florida and North Carolina remain true "tossups."  It's assigned most of the swing states to Obama, giving him just over 300 electoral votes even without the two tossups.  We will see.

Rasmussen morning tracker still has race tied with just 1% undecided and 1% going to other candidates.  He claims it will come down to "white turnout"--if up vs. 2008 then white knight Romney will win, if down, then Obama takes it.   He also observers that Obama does, indeed, lead among early voters.  

New NBC has Obama up 48%-47%.  It notes that is same margin Bush led over Kerry in 2008 in its final poll, which perhaps bodes well for Obama.

Politico has the numbers tied but seems perplexed why most "perceive" Obama as the likely winner (hello:  Electoral College).   Obama now leads among indys by 1% after trailing by 10%.  The generic congressional ballot also tied.  

ABC-Wash Post also comes up tied but again notes surge among indys for Obama.

Obama approval rating up after Sandy, from pollsters ranging from PPP to Rasmussen.

PPP has McCaskill up by (only) 4% over Akin in Missouri.

SATURDAY UPDATE  Nate Silver tonight (far from backing down to criticism) tonight hikes Obama's odds at winning to 84%.  It seems almost all of the swing state polls in past day have favored the president.  And now the final Des Moines Register poll gives him a solid 5% lead in Iowa.

Chris Cillizza at Wash Post gives Obama very slight edge in his electoral college picks. Jim Cramer, blowhard, gives Obama 440 electoral votes--knock off the usual for him and he's still getting 340.

Earlier:  Rasmussen's morning tracker keeps the race tied--but now (even) they give Obama edge in Electoral College, 237-206.  That doesn't count Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin,  Florida, Nevada, Colorado, N.H.   They also have Mourdoch trailing in Indiana by 3%.

A big one from Mason Dixon this morning:  Romney up 6% in Florida.  But NBC/Marist this morning calls it a 2% lead for Obama.    Politracker gives Romney a slight edge there in its polling averages. Obama, theoretically, does not need that state.

Chuck Todd on Twitter  notes this about that NBC poll that also finds Obama up 6% in Ohio:  Responding to GOP whining that they oversample Dems, they note that even when they hiked Repubs it's still 3% margin.

Miscelleny:  Politico reports that "insiders" claim that Chris Christie was actually Romney's first choice for veep...David Axelrod on Obama's current speaking on the stump: "You can see in the speech that he's delivering that this is coming from his loins."

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