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Friday, November 2, 2012

Friday Poll Dance

UPDATE #2  New CNN poll, running right up to yesterday, gives Obama 3% edge in Ohio, just the latest to confirm his lead there.

New daily tracker from ABC/WashPost gives Romney 49%-48% edge nationally. 

UPDATE #1   Big day for Obama in swing states polls, as he takes, or widens, leads in nearly all of them.   PPP just reported a safe 6% bulge for Obama in Michigan and 9% in Mnnesota.  BTW, Gallup, which ceased polling this week due to Sandy, now back in the field and will start reporting again this weekend.

In an issue close to my heart: The venerable Field Poll in California finds the first lead for the ballot measure abolishing the death penalty there. 

Also, you might be interested in my new piece at The Nation--my promised predictions on who will in 11 swing states, and the overall winner: Obama.  This is based purely on key newspaper endorsements in these states.  Laughable? Using the same guide, I might have had the best record on such picks in both 2004 and 2008. 

Earlier: And away--or aweigh--we go.   Rasmussen's daily tracker, as I predicted, suddenly closes and shows Obama now tied with Romney at 48% each, after he trailed by 4% earlier.  This could be Rasmussen, one of the outliers showing Romney with a nice edge, making sure it is closer to the norm so it gets a better rating when the whole thing is over.  It does show Romney with a 3% lead in Colorado, plus a tied race in Wisconsin.

PPP, on the other hand, has Obama up 4% in Colorado.

In a key Senate race,  Indiana's Richard Mourdock now trails opponent Joe Donnelly by a whopping 11% in one poll, following his rape/no abortion comment.   Even Rasmussen now puts Sen. Jon Tester up by 1% in Montana.

Nate Silver, far from backing down on his claims that Obama is a clear favorite, up his odds on that to a high level 80.9% today, along with this defense/explanation

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